The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released in 2009 may have overestimated declines in home prices because it included the prices of distressed foreclosure properties, according to Stan Humphries, data and analytics vice president for Seattle-based real estate research firm Zillow.
Standard & Poor’s home price index indicated that the value of homes in the Washington counties of Pierce, King and Snohomish fell in January by 15 percent from January 2008 and fell by 3.6 percent from the previous month. The composite home value in 20 cities declined by 19 percent from January 2008 and fell by 2.8 percent from the previous month.
Humphries contended that S&P measured home values in a particular market by examining repeat sales of same houses rather than focusing on home sales within a certain period. He observed that the S&P index considered foreclosure properties sales that have been bought back by lenders from foreclosures.
In California’s Bay Area, the median price for foreclosure properties was 47 percent of non-foreclosed properties in December 2008. Since sales of foreclosure properties accounted for 60 percent of sales in the area, Humphries argued, foreclosure properties had a significant impact on the S&P home price index.
While the S&P price index indicated a 31 percent decline in Bay Area home prices, the Zillow home price index showed a decline of only 17 percent, a difference of 14 percentage points compared to the S&P index.
Zillow further explained that the difference between S&P and Zillow’s indexes for the Seattle area was just a little over 1 percentage point because foreclosure properties accounted for only 17 percent of home sales in December 2008 while representing 73 percent of sales of non-foreclosure properties. Zillow asserted the S&P report does not show the true picture of the housing market.
David Guarino, spokesperson for S&P, rejected Humphries’ contentions, saying foreclosure properties make up part of the housing market. He argued that the homes in foreclosures now were the same homes that caused home price increases during the housing boom.
In support of the foreclosure inclusion argument, Glenn Crellin, head of Washington State University’s Washington Center for Real Estate Research, said the determination of housing market values and median home prices traditionally excluded prices of home sales influenced by factors such as state foreclosures, but foreclosure properties have become the norm in many housing markets, so the decision to include foreclosure properties has logical basis.
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